US–Pakistan Relations Index
One transparent reading of how much is happening between the two countries, built from the trade, aid, Congress and editorial records published on this site, with every rule and weight shown.
The reading
Year by year · choose a year to read it
- 2013: 33, below its usual level
- 2014: 25, below its usual level
- 20152015: 43, around its usual level
- 2016: 39, below its usual level
- 2017: 44, around its usual level
- 2018: not enough data
- 2019: 44, around its usual level
- 20202020: 43, around its usual level
- 2021: 58, around its usual level
- 2022: 71, above its usual level
- 2023: 43, around its usual level
- 2024: 53, around its usual level
- 20252025: 64, above its usual level
Before 2013: not enough data for a reading (the components on record start in different years; see below).
Far belowBelowUsualAboveFar aboveNot enough data
Barometer dial: the 2024 reading is 53 out of 100, around its usual level based on 3 of 5 components; with any one left out it would be between 38 and 75. Contributions from the middle of the record (50): Trade +9.7 (score 73), Aid −12.1 (score 16), Long Arc events +5.8 (score 77). Readings by year: 2013 33, 2014 25, 2015 43, 2016 39, 2017 44, 2019 44, 2020 43, 2021 58, 2022 71, 2023 43, 2024 53, 2025 64.
What moved the needle in 2024
From the middle of the record (50), each component pushes the reading up or down by its weight share times the distance of its score from 50.
- Middle of the record50
- Trade +9.7 score 73 × 43%
- Aid −12.1 score 16 × 36%
- Long Arc events +5.8 score 77 × 21%
- Reading, 202453
The components, one by one
Each line is the component’s own score, year by year, with the figure behind its latest reading; follow its link for the underlying data.
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Trade
30% of the weight2025: $8.55 billion, score 82
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Aid
25% of the weight2025: $196 million, score 21
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Congress
Not scoredOnly 3 years so far; 5 are needed before it is scored.
Latest on record: 2 bills and resolutions (2025)
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Long Arc events
15% of the weight2025: 5 events, score 100
-
Issue updates
Not scoredNo data on the site yet, so it is left out.
Dashed: the composite reading. Each solid line is that component’s score, 0 (its lowest year on record) to 100 (its highest).
Figures by year (CSV) Everything, with the method (JSON) Computed by CUPA from the sources named below; CC BY 4.0.
How the index is made
The index is computed by this website from data it already publishes, using the rules below and nothing else. No figure is typed in by hand, and nothing is estimated or forecast. It measures how much is happening in the relationship compared with its own record. It does not say whether the relationship is friendly: a year of sanctions bills or crises raises the reading as much as a year of deals.
1. Components
| Component | What is counted | Source on this site | Weight | Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trade | Two-way goods trade: US exports to Pakistan plus US imports from Pakistan, calendar year, nominal US dollars. Only years with all twelve months of both flows. | US Census Bureau, via the Trade dashboard | 30 (30%) | 2013–2025 |
| Aid | US foreign-assistance obligations to Pakistan, in constant dollars, for the US fiscal year ending in that year. FY2024 (October 2023 to September 2024) is scored as 2024; the 1976 transition quarter is left out. | ForeignAssistance.gov, via the US aid explorer | 25 (25%) | 1948–2025 |
| Congress | Bills and resolutions in the US Congress mentioning Pakistan, by the year they were introduced. Hidden items are left out. Years between the first and last with a record count zero when empty. | Congress.gov and GovInfo, via the Congress tracker | 15 | 2023–2025 |
| Long Arc events | Published events on The Long Arc dated in the year, in the categories chosen by the editors. Years between the first and last event count zero when empty. | CUPA’s sourced timeline, The Long Arc | 15 (15%) | 1947–2025 |
| Issue updates | Dated updates added to published issues on the Issue Map. Years between the first and last update count zero when empty. | CUPA’s Issue Map | 15 | none yet |
2. Each component is scored against its own record
For each component, every year on record is ranked against all the others: the score is the year’s percentile rank, from 0 (the component’s lowest year) to 100 (its highest), with tied years sharing the middle rank. This puts dollars and counts on one scale without guessing what a “normal” year is. A component needs at least 5 years on record before it is scored. Only complete calendar years are used: the current year is never scored.
3. The composite is a weighted mean
A year’s reading is the weighted mean of the components scored that year, with the weights re-scaled to the components present. A year gets a reading only when at least 3 components are scored and they carry at least half of the total weight; otherwise it is shown as “not enough data”. The waterfall starts from 50, the middle of the record, and adds each component’s weight share × (its score − 50).
4. Weights
The weights are an editorial choice by CUPA, not a measurement. The defaults are trade 30, aid 25, Congress 15, Long Arc events 15 and Issue Map updates 15: the two official money series carry more than the counts, which depend partly on what CUPA has published. Every change to the weights is logged below with its reason and recomputes the whole series.
5. How it is updated
The site’s scheduled job recomputes the index at most once an hour from the current data, and keeps the result whenever it has changed. Last checked 6 October 2026. This version was computed on 6 October 2026.
How to read it, and its limits
- Whole numbers only. The reading is a rank-based summary, so a difference of a few points means little. The range beside the dial is the reading recomputed with each component left out in turn.
- Readings can change after the fact. Each new year re-ranks every year of its component, and late official revisions (aid especially) change past values. Download the figures if you need a fixed copy.
- Trade is in nominal dollars, so inflation alone lifts later years a little. Aid is in constant dollars.
- The counts are curated. The Long Arc and the Issue Map record what CUPA’s editors have published, not every event; the Congress tracker covers what the official APIs return.
Changes to the weights
None yet: the default weights are in use.