Islamabad Washington, DC

No. 99 of 103The Long ArcA new agenda

Regional conflictKey momentA new agenda

Four days of war and a ceasefire Trump announced

After the Pahalgam attack and Indian strikes on Pakistan, the nuclear-armed neighbours fought their most serious conflict in decades. Pakistan credited US mediation for the ceasefire; India said it was agreed bilaterally.

Announcement

Ceasefire

President Trump

Ceasefire, 2025

Announcement

Ceasefire

President Trump

Ceasefire, 2025

Background

On 22 April 2025 gunmen killed 26 people, most of them tourists, in the Baisaran meadow near Pahalgam in Indian-administered Kashmir. India blamed Pakistan-based militants and took a series of measures, including placing the Indus Waters Treaty "in abeyance"; Pakistan denied involvement, called for a neutral investigation and retaliated diplomatically1.

What happened

On 7 May India launched missile strikes, which it called Operation Sindoor, on sites in Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir that it said were terrorist infrastructure. Pakistan said civilians were killed and claimed to have shot down several Indian aircraft. Over the following days the two militaries exchanged drone, missile and artillery attacks, including on air bases1,2.

On 10 May Trump announced on social media that, after a long night of talks mediated by the United States, India and Pakistan had agreed to a full and immediate ceasefire2,3. In a statement titled "Announcing a U.S.-Brokered Ceasefire between India and Pakistan", Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that over the previous 48 hours he and Vice President JD Vance had engaged senior Indian and Pakistani officials, and that the two governments had agreed to an immediate ceasefire and to start talks on a broad set of issues at a neutral site7,8. India's account was that Pakistan's Director General of Military Operations had called his Indian counterpart that afternoon and that the two had agreed to stop firing from 5 pm Indian time2.

Pakistan publicly thanked the United States. In June its government announced that it would recommend Trump for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize in recognition of what it called his decisive diplomatic intervention and pivotal leadership during the crisis; the move was mocked by some commentators4,6. India, by contrast, said there had been no US mediation; after a call between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Trump on 18 June, India's foreign secretary said Modi had told Trump that India had never accepted and would never accept third-party mediation with Pakistan5.

Two readings

The disagreement over who ended the fighting was not merely a matter of pride. For Pakistan, crediting Washington internationalised a crisis it had long argued could only be solved with outside help, and kept open the prospect of US engagement on Kashmir, which Trump said he would like to help resolve3. For India, accepting mediation would have contradicted a policy, held since the 1972 Simla Agreement, that disputes with Pakistan are strictly bilateral. The United States, for its part, presented the outcome as a success of presidential diplomacy, and Trump repeatedly cited it in later speeches.

Why it mattered

The crisis marked a turning point in US–Pakistan relations. Washington's willingness to engage both sides - and Trump's repeated public claims of credit, which Pakistan embraced and India resented - gave Pakistan a diplomatic opening it had lacked for years. It also strained US–India relations, already tested by trade disputes.

Legacy

The ceasefire held, though without any broader India–Pakistan dialogue. The episode underlies the warmer US–Pakistan ties of 2025–26, including Field Marshal Munir's White House lunch in June 2025.

Sources

  1. India and Pakistan agree to ceasefire after intense clashes, says US President Donald Trump, Herald Goa, 10 May 2025 · Press
  2. India and Pakistan agreed to ceasefire after US mediation - Trump (Sputnik), GlobalSecurity.org, 10 May 2025 · Press
  3. Trump vows to help resolve Kashmir dispute despite India’s refusal to give credit to US for Pakistan ceasefire, Deccan Herald, May 2025 · Press
  4. Pakistan recommends Donald Trump for 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, ARY News, June 2025 · Press
  5. PM Modi told Trump ‘India will never accept mediation’ on tensions with Pakistan: MEA, Scroll.in, 18 June 2025 · Press
  6. Pakistan nominates Trump for Nobel Peace Prize amid ridicule, The New Arab, June 2025 · Press
  7. Announcing a U.S.-Brokered Ceasefire between India and Pakistan (statement by Secretary Rubio), GlobalSecurity.org (US Department of State), 10 May 2025 · Official
  8. India and Pakistan agree to a ceasefire in US-mediated talks, WBUR (AP), 10 May 2025 · Press

Next in The Long ArcA White House lunch for Pakistan’s army chief